Ikigo mpuzamahanga cy’ubushakashatsi cy’Abanyamerika, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), cyazamuye igipimo cy’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda kibuvana ku inota rya B kirushyira ku rya B+, ku kuba bwifashe neza cyane, ibi bikaba byongera icyizere ku ishoramari mu gihugu.
Ikigo S&P cyizewe ku rwego mpuzamahanga, mu bushobozi n’ubunararibonye mu kugaragaza uko ibihugu bifite ubushobozi bwo kwishyura imyenda biba byaragurijwe, kikanatanga ubusesenguzi mu rwego rwa politiki.
Igipimo cy’ubushobozi bw’ibihugu bwo kwishyura imyenda biba byaragurijwe bidateje ibibazo mu bukungu, ni ingenzi kuko biha abashoramari ishusho y’icyizere cyangwa ibyago bigendanye n’ishoramari ryabo bashobora guhura nabyo mu gihugu runaka harimo n’ibya politiki.
Iterambere ry’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda rirenze iry’ibihugu biri mu cyiciro kimwe bitewe n’impamvu nyinshi zirimo ko urwego rw’ishoramari rubarirwa kuri 25% by’umusaruro mbumbe (GDP).
Igipimo cya S&P kirerekana ko u Rwanda rwagaragaje imbaraga mu iterambere ry’umusaruro mbumbe ndetse runarenza igipimo cyateganyijwe cy’ayo umuturage yinjiza ku mwaka kurusha ibihugu biri mu cyiciro kimwe.
Mu 2018, umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu (GDP) wiyongera ku rugero cya 8.6 %, ugereranyije n’umwaka wabanje uva kuri miliyari 7,597 Frw ugera kuri miliyari 8,189 Frw.
Ikigereranyo cy’amafaranga umuturage yinjiza cyazamutseho 1.7% hagati ya 2017 na 2018. Mu 2017 yari 774 $ naho mu 2018 yari 788$ ku mwaka.
Isesengura riheruka rya S&P, ryagaragaje ko urwego rw’imyenda u Rwanda rufite iri ku rwego rwiza ndetse n’igiciro cyo kuyishyura kikiri hasi.
Rivuga ko ‘twazamuye igipimo cy’ubusugire bw’igihe kirekire ku kuzuza inshingano zijyanye n’iby’imari k’u Rwanda buva kuri B bugera kuri B+ tunagaragaza ko iki gipimo kitazahungabana’.
Iki gipimo gishingiye ku ntambwe ikomeye y’iterambere ry’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda, urwego rw’imyenda rufite ndetse n’indi micungire na gahunda zihamye z’ubukungu bw’igihugu.
Muri Werurwe uyu mwaka, Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari (IMF) cyatangaje ko umwenda u Rwanda rufite udateye inkeke kuko ungana na 32.9% by’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu (GDP) mu gihe ikigero gihanitse ari 50%.
Itangazo rya IMF rivuga ko inguzanyo zishyura mu gihe kirekire zari kuri 63% mu mpera za 2018 ugereranyije na 57.4% zariho igihe nk’icyo mu 2017.
Rikomeza rivuga ko “Byagezweho kubera uburyo igihugu cyakoresheje bwo gufata inguzanyo z’igihe kirekire aho kwibanda ku z’ubucuruzi (commercial borrowing).’’
Iki gipimo kandi ni ikintu cyiza ku bashoramari kuko kibaha icyizere kandi kikaba cyije gisanga ibindi bipimo ndetse n’ubusesenguzi bwerekana ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda butajegajega.
Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwazamutseho 8.6% mu 2018 ugereranyije na 7.2% cyari giteganyijwe. Biteganyijwe ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzazamuka 7.8% mu 2019, bukazamuka 8.1% mu 2020 na 8.2% mu 2021.
Standard & Poor’s kandi yanahinduye igipimo cy’igihugu mu bijyanye no kohereza ndetse no guhinduranya amafaranga kiva kuri B kijya kuri B+.
Muri iyi raporo S&P ivuga ko ‘iki gipimo kitazahindagurika kuko twizera ko u Rwanda ruzakomeza kugera hejuru y’izamuka ry’umusaruro mbumbe ryateganyijwe mu gihe giciriritse, guhangana n’ingaruka zaterwa no kuba ibyateganyijwe bitakozwe no kongera imyenda’.
Ivuga kandi ko ishobora kumanura igipimo ku mpamvu zirimo no kuba Ebola iri muri RDC yagira ingaruka ku byo u Rwanda rwohereza mu mahanga n’ubukungu muri rusange.
Iki gipimo kandi gishobora no kwiyongera mu gihe giciriritse niba ibyo u Rwanda rwohereza mu mahanga bikomeje kwiyongera kandi bikaba mu bwoko butandukanye.
Mu mwaka ushize wa 2018, u Rwanda rwohereje mu mahanga ibicuruzwa bifite agaciro ka miliyoni 995.7$ avuye kuri miliyoni 943.5$ mu 2017. BNR igaragaza ko nubwo ibyoherejwe mu mahanga byiyongereye, ikinyuranyo cy’ibitumizwa mu mahanga cyo cyazamutse ku kigero 12.4%.
Ibi byatumye inyungu u Rwanda rukura mu byo rwohereza mu mahanga igabanuka igera kuri 41.1% mu 2018, ivuye kuri 42.6% mu 2017.
Src : IGIHE
